Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Men behind India's Space Programme

Business India, November 21-December 4, 1994 
 
Those magnificent men... 
The Indian space programme spanning 40 years is the story of remarkable men and their amazing deeds 
 Shivanand Kanavi 
(All photos are by Palashranjan Bhaumick)



The Church where Space is worshipped

 After seeing the giant Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), as tall as a 15-storeyed building, take off flawlessly on 15 October this year, it is hard to believe that it all started with a metre-long rocket, a little bigger than a Diwali firework. The Indian space pro­gramme today is acknowledged the world over as one of the top six. We have the capability to build state-of-the-art remote sensing and communication satellites and now with the success of PSLV, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has demonstrated mastery over complex technologies in rocketry, capable of putting satellites into precise predetermined orbits. How did it leap to these heights from its humble beginnings? Who are our prominent space men? What makes them tick? In the barrage of num­bers on payload capability, orbit charac­teristics, specific impulses, etc. the story of the programme and the people who made it possible tends to get obscured. Business India visited several ISRO cen­tres in Bangalore, Trivandrum, Valia­mala, Mahendragiri and Sriharikota to meet some of these elusive folk. 

 'A church where space is worshipped' sounds like a corny ad line or something from the fiction of an Isaac Asimov or an Arthur C. Clark novel. But it is a fact that the Indian space programme actually started in 1963 in a church and the adjoin­ing bishop's house. The premises were graciously offered to the cause by the local Christian community at Thumba, near Trivandrum. The scientists led by Dr Vikram Sarabhai worked in the bishop's house and the metre-long sounding rock­ets were assembled in the anteroom of the church and fired from a launch pad on the beach. 

 Pramod Kale, who retired on 2 November from his post of director of Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC), carried out the traditional countdown for the first launch. Today the church with a history dating back to 1544 AD has thou­sands of youthful 'worshippers' visiting everyday. It has been turned into the most comprehensive space mu­seum in India. Dr P. Manoranjan Rao of the Pro­gramme Planning and Evalu­ation Group at VSSC remarks wistfully, "I hope our politi­cians learn something from this space museum and apply it in Ayodhya - that would be one more spin-off from India's space programme!” 

BOX
  'The space programme will help upgrade the technology level of the country of the country' 


Dr K Kasturirangan "We have had good leadership with clear cut goals"

Dr K. Kasturirangan, secretary to the Department of Space, who is also chairman of the Space Commission, in conversation with Shivanand Kanavi 

Congratulations on the successful launch of the PSLV. For you per­sonally, what has been the most chal­lenging and satisfying project? 

 Thank you. If you ask me personally, the design and development of the first oper­ational remote sensing satellite IRS-1A was the most exciting. Over a period of almost six years, we built a state-of-the-­art satellite. So many technologies had to be developed. We certainly had difficul­ties all through the developmental stage in structural testing, thermal design, developing new systems, etc. 

 Two aspects were that we were devel­oping these technologies for the first time and that since it was going to be an opera­tional system everything had to be reli­able. We were targeting for a life of three years for our satellite, whereas the corre­sponding French satellite, SPOT, had only a two-year life. Today, the IRS-1A has completed six years and is still work­ing. It was a sort of a national project, with the involvement of large number of centres. Those six years were a period of intense learning and innovation. 

You are a physicist and, in fact, spe­cialised in the esoteric high energy astronomy. How did you make the switch to an engineering project like that? 

I started my research career at the Physi­cal Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, with Dr Vikram Sarabhai. I had to develop the balloon-bound payload for X-­ray astronomy. For that I had to build my own electronic circuits, power supplies, logic circuits and even ground station equipment. It was an experience in mechanical, electronic and system engi­neering. That period of PhD work provided me a very good base for conceptualising a system and integrating individual sub-systems, making it opera­tional, etc. 

 It also provided me with capability to think originally and in new ways. This does not come about unless you do research. I emphasise this point because a lot of people today jump into careers after B Tech or M Tech. But if you want to be a successful manager, team leader, designer, innovator or anything where originality of thinking is involved, then it needs a background in research. 

 When I had just completed my PhD in ­1970, Dr. Sarabhai called me to his room and encouraged me to join the scientific satellite project. I told him that I did not know the technology component of satellites. But he gave me the confidence that a physicist can play an important role in systems engineering. Then I worked hard and learnt satellite technology and found that that it was not very difficult. 

How are you trying to retain the excitement and team spirit in ISRO? 

 One excellent trend has been set in this department and that is sitting down with the users; departments of telecom, ocean level of development of countries in this development, forestry, geology, agriculture, I&B, civil aviation, etc. They tell us what they are looking for in, terms of further support and services. Then we translate them into programmes and projects. 

The technology options are worked out by various levels of people. Second level, third and even fourth. They come out with ideas. An important thing about the culture of this organisation is that irre­spective of who the person is, he is heard with respect and given due weightage. ­That makes everybody get involved. Last30 years have been well directed. 

Has thinking begun already on the post-GSLV technologies? 

 We have not decided anything yet. Once the PSLV comes to fruition and GSLV ­moves fast then we will start worrying about the first decade of the 21st century. Several engineers are very busy looking ­at various things. Every day somebody comes and they want to do air- breathing engines, somebody else on single- stage orbit transfer, etc. and they point to the new technologies  needed for these systems. People at satellite centre say, now we should go in for the nest generation of satellites of heavier class, direct broadcasting systems, etc. Ideas are perpetually bubbling in the minds of peoples here. We have to review them, convert them into concrete projects looking at their economic viability, feasibility of accomplishing the goal in a certain time-fame, etc. At ISRO we have always operated at the cutting edge of technology and we would like to maintain that pre-eminent position in the years to come. 

One of the ideas being tossed around is that of an Asian Space Consortium, like the eminently successful European Space Agency….. 

This idea has been floated but there has been no concrete exchange of ideas. Compounding the issue is the fact that the region is not uniform. In Europe you have 13-14 member states who can industrially and technologically contribute. We need to address these issues, so far the programme has been national and co-operation has been on a bilateral basis. 

Leaving aside the political issues involved in such a venture, it makes sense economically. If you want to compete in the growing Asian Satellite market it would be easier to get contracts if various states in the region have stake in the programme. Otherwise, they would be awarded to Hughes or TRW or someone else. 

You are quite right. But we need to address some of the problems and have the region. So that each country can contribute the best they can. 

There is one basic question that is often raised. Indonesia built a satellite communication system much before us without a satellite or launch vehicle development programme. So, in today’s condition, why should one go in for these programmes, when made to-order satellites are available as also commercial launch programmes. 

The situation is not that simple. India is a country with about 3.2 million sq km land and the second largest population with large resources, not just in materials but also scientific. That is why right from the time of Independence self-reliance in cer­tain vital areas, like communications, meteorology, earth resources through remote sensing, etc. has been one of the national goals. 

 In these areas we have to provide the nation assured-services which are timely and cost-effective. Another important thing is that it generally upgrades the technological level of the country. It per­colates down to various levels of the economy. In fact the objective of the Swedish space programme is general upgradation of the country's technologi­cal capability. With our vast country and diverse needs, which we can meet with our own technological capability, why should we go and buy it from someone else. Moreover, we can launch our own satellites with our own launch vehicle most cost-effectively.

Technically speaking, if we have access to a booster like the first stage of PSLV, which is the third largest in the world, then India can construct ICBMs if it wants. What is your reaction? 

We have not configured this vehicle for any military application. Right from the beginning the PSLV has been designed as an optimised solution to launch 1-tonne class remote sensing satellites into polar orbits. Then the question was what are the technologies that we have so far in liquid and solid propulsion and how can we combine them in an optimal way in this vehicle. So, none of the requirements of a missile have been kept in mind for this vehicle. 

Is it that critical what the end use of the vehicle is? 

Certainly, Configuration and other details are quite different. 

What about the PSLVS ability to launch low earth orbit reconnaissance satellites? 

 Nowadays remote sensing applications are demanding more and more resolu­tion up to even two metres. Some com­panies abroad are openly.announcing high resolutions for civilian purposes which were earlier considered to be in the domain of reconnaissance. Capabilities, which were restricted to an aircraft-based survey are now being built into the space­craft itself. The PSLV will be a vehicle which will be used for these kinds of mappings. 

If the PSLV can actually launch a much higher payload but for the complicated yaw manoeuvre to avoid Sri Lanka then can't we have another launch site for it? 

 It is an expensive proposition to set up an alternative launch site and we have made considerable investments in Sriharikota. Let me also point out that most of the launch sites in the world today are not that well optimised. Either they will have deficiency for the equatorial mode or for the polar mode because of various constraints like nearby land masses, safety zones, nearness to the equator, etc. So, one has to live with the non­-optional situation. Our loca­tion for launching geostationary communication satellites is very good, being at 13° N latitude. The only thing better than that is the French site at Kouru islands in French Guyana which is at 7° S latitude. 

Right now ISRO just builds satellites and operates them but the department of telecom decides how the transponders are used by whom. Can ISRO on its own launch a satellite and lease out the transponders to whoever wants to use it, be it domestic private users or foreign governments or companies like Asi­asat, Arabsat or Apstar? 

 We can't rule out this possibility. It needs to be pursued. Right now I am unable to answer the question.

Since we are getting seven flight-quali­fied cryogenic engines from Russia, are we going to start flying operational communication satellites from the GSLV-l? 

No the first flight will be experimental and then as and when the need arises we will use them to launch comsats. Mean­while, before the end of this decade we want, to develop our own cryogenic engine whose, parallel development will go on. 
(End Box)




Today, with inspiring suc­cesses in satellite building and in rocketry, it is easy for a young man with stars in his eyes to join ISRO. But what was it like in the 1960s? Then all one had was the exciting news of the Soviet-American space race and the prospect of emigrating and joining NASA. It would have been considered daydreaming of the highest order for an Indian to think of an Indian rocket inject­ing an Indian satellite into orbit. So what attracted our would-be space men to join Vikram Sarabhai in his dreams? 

 "I was an undergraduate studying physics when the Soviets launched the, Sputnik. I made up my mind to join the space programme, though it did not exist then. Soon after my BSc honours, I went to Ahmedabad and met Dr Sarabhai. He asked me to come to Ahmedabad, finish post-graduation and then join him in the Physical Research Laboratory," recounts Kale. After two more years of waiting and an MSc, Kale became one of the first to be roped into the space programme. He moved to Trivandrum, to the nascent Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station. That was the time of the church and the bishop's house. The unassuming Kale is regarded with great respect in ISRO and his early retirement is seen a great loss. "We wish he would change his mind," says Dr Manoranjan Rao. 

 Kale started his work in satellite sys­tems quite early and is today one of the authorities on the subject. Besides his in-depth knowledge of satellite tech­nology, he is a systems man. Nearly- 20 years back his work in systems analysis and management was recognised. And eight months back, when he was trans­ferred to vssc at Trivandrum, it was not only another home coming for Kale but also a challenging opportunity in project management for the PSLv launch preparation. 

 Within a short time he brought in advanced project management tech­niques. "We had to deal with about 12,000 activities and 18 networks. It was a mind-boggling exercise in project man­agement. We prepared project evaluation and review technique charts with about 500 elements and tried to find which are the optimal, normal and critical paths," says R.A.D. Pillai, one of the project managers. In such a complex project some activities can go on in parallel, as they don't depend on others till they reach a certain stage while others deal with inte­gration of these sub-assemblies. The lat­ter kind are heavily sequential - that is they depend on whether other systems are ready at the right time, and can only be carried out in a sequence of steps. If a step is not completed then a bottleneck is created and the integration gets held up. Anticipating trouble involves finding all such critical paths. 

 Normally one finds only one critical path, but, since there are a number of fac­tors which depend on chance, the natural choice is the ‘Monte Carlo technique'. This technique derives its name from the infamous gambling dens of Monte Carlo and using 'game theory' estimates all possible critical paths. When Kale used these techniques for the PSLV, he found more than one critical path and that helped. "But there is no substitute for actually visiting any division or centre which is critical and finding solutions together with the people there. Software can only act as a pointer, it is not a substi­tute for leadership in the field," Kale rightly points out. 

 Richard Feynman, the brilliant Nobel prize-winning physicist who played a pivotal role in identifying the cause of the Challenger space shuttle disaster, wrote incisively in his eminently readable book, Who cares what other people think?, that the excitement and problem-solving atmosphere in NASA vanished after the Moon mission. The top people started developing shuttle-type of projects with exaggerated claims about spin-offs to perpetuate the space programme. Worse still, the team spirit vanished and the top guns stopped listening to the field­men. The thing to worry about is, has something similar set into the Indian space programme, now into its fourth decade? 

 Does the open atmosphere and excite­ment that prevailed in the early years still exist in ISRO? Kale vehemently asserts it does. "The only change I see is that people are getting a bit bogged down in places and the earlier spirit to go wherever problems exist is decreasing. Other than that, it is a very transparent organisation. All technical matters are thrashed out collectively. Who says something does not matter as much as what he says." 

 "One of the main reasons we are still highly motivated in ISRO is that for nearly three decades we have had good leader­ship with clear cut goals," says Dr. K.Kas­turirangan, the incumbent chairman of ISRO. "When Dr Sarabhai passed away, he had already defined four broad areas of work: development of a satellite, devel­opment of a launch vehicle, remote sens­ing experiments using data from the American Landsat and even a sociologi­cal experiment in satellite communica­tion in education, like SITE." 

 "Then the equally illustrious Prof Satish Dhawan took over," recalls Kasturirangan. "He made sure that these things are translated into reality by build­ing the core organisation to realise these goals. He set new goals like building the Aryabhata satellite, experimental remote sensing satellites Bhaskara I & II, first experimental communication satellite APPLE and intensive attention towards the development of the SLV-3. When he left the scene, Aryabhata, Bhaskara, APPLE were completed. The SLV-3 had successfully launched the Rohini class of satellites and even operationalised the first generation communication systems, the INSAT-l series. Then he led us in working out the profile for the next ten years: development of the augmented satellite launch vehicle (ASLV), the PSLV. and the IRS class of remote sensing satel­lites and the indigenous INSAT-2 series," he says. 

 "Prof. U.R. Rao strengthened the insti­tutions, promoted applications in remote sensing and carried forward with vigour the realisation of these goals," he adds. But what about the future? "We worry today about what we have to do five to ten years later. Once the activities regarding PSLV development come to fruition and the GSLV moves fast, we will start worry­ing about the first decade of the 21st century. One excellent trend has been set in this department and that is sitting down with users, like the departments of tele­com, ocean development, forestry, geol­ogy, agriculture, I&B, civil aviation, etc, who tell us what they are looking for in terms of further support and services. Then we translate them into programmes and projects. This loop is continuously on," says Kasturirangan. 

 Any number of ISRO personnel vouch for this. No wonder the space programme has been one of the few success stories authored by the government. People too have stuck around despite low govern­ment salaries and lucrative offers from multinationals. The essential cement has been the open atmosphere at ISRO and the excitement of breaking new ground all on one's own. 

 A very Indian characteristic of ISRO is the penchant for improvisation with what one has. For example, today Indian remote sensing has come of age and its IRS data and the expertise are in demand globally. But 25 years back it did not exist. In fact, remote sensing itself was then just emerging from the war-torn jun­gles of Indo-China, where it was devel­oped by the US to locate camouflaged Vietcong guerrilla positions. The moment an opportunity came along to learn remote sensing in the US with the Earth Resources Technology Satellite project, Sarabhai sent Kale, P. R. Pisharoty, C. Dakshinamurthy and B. Krishnamurthy for the same. 

 India at that time did not have remote sensing cameras and much less IRS satel­lites. So on their return the four began small. In Kerala, a common scourge affecting the coconut trees is 'coconut wilt' that only affects the crown of the tree and cannot be seen from the ground, thereby defying damage estimation. These scientists managed to hitch a ride on a helicopter, and using a camera with a roll of infrared sensitive film took pic­tures of coconut plantations. From this modest experiment followed by decades of painstaking work, India has today become one of the global leaders in all aspects of remote sensing.

 When it came to launch vehicle tech­nology things; however, became very dif­ficult. The US refused to part with even the most elementary technologies, instead saying, 'buy our sounding rock­ets'. The French were more helpful. They sold the propellant technology for small solid-fuelled sounding rockets; though it was a far cry from the indigenously devel­oped, sophisticated ammonium perchlo­rate-hydroxyl-terminated poly-butadiene technology that is now used in the first stage of the PSLV, which makes it the third most powerful booster rocket in the world. 

 In the mid-1970s, France once again offered to share the liquid propulsion technology in exchange for Indian collab­oration in developing the same. The Indi­ans were supposed to develop the pressure transducers for the Viking liquid engines under development. While these transducers are hi-tech products, they are only a small component of the liquid engine. Moreover, there are so many design complexities that the 'know why' is absolutely essential to build an engine. The ‘know how' in terms of drawings are not enough. Why a particular thing is machined to one micron precision and not two? Why a certain kind of gasket or an O-ring has to be used and not any other, etc, can make or break an engine. The French, probably never expected Indians to acquire the full technology. Hence the contract was signed at a throwaway price. 


Nambi Narayanan "If I write my memoirs one day, it will sound like a thriller"

 The 50-odd team that went to France between 1978 and 1980 was made up of the cream of young ISRO engineers. Every day they brainstormed and sought solutions to complex design problems of the Viking, while maintaining a 'dumb' exterior to their French counterparts. 

Two years later they returned to India and claimed that they could build a 6O-tonne liquid engine using nitrogen tetroxide and unsymmetrical di-methyl hydrazine (UDMH), chemical compounds which were not even available in India then! "We asked for only Rs40 lakh (to fund the project)," recounts S. Nambina­rayanan, presently director, Cryogenic Propulsion, who lead the team to France. "Prof Dhawan was crazy enough to accede to this cocky request. If I write my memoirs some day, it will sound like a thriller," he laughs. 

 Two years later they built a model and in 1984 built an engine ready for test. But, then India did not have the present test facilities at Mahendragiri which, inci­dentally, being just ten years old is the most modem in the world. So the engine had to be taken all the way to France and Rs. l crore paid as testing fee. The French asked, "So you have brought an engine. Is this your prototype? Do you have a manufacturing programme?" and when answered in the negative, they could not believe it. They thought 'these Indians are crazy', Nambinarayanan recollects. 

The engine was tested and, to the jubi­lation of the Indians and the horror of the French the engine fired beautifully. Today's Vikas liquid engine is bigger than the French. Viking engine. And thereby hangs a tale of ISRO ingenuity and team work. It is this track record that gives the confidence to ISRO when they talk about developing cryogenic engines an order of magnitude more complex. 

 ISRO is not made up of just engineers who get their high from technology. There are also those who are worrying about costs,' markets, competitiveness and commercialisation. The hyperactive N. Sampath, executive director, Antric Corp, is one of them. In his characteristic rapid-fire style, he answers questions on commercial spin-offs with counter-ques­tions. "Why are we being asked about the commercialisation of the space pro­gramme? Can you show me one country in the world, which started the space programme to make money out of it? Then why pick on us?" This is not to say that he and his team are not looking at the highly competitive global space market, but he considers it as a spin-off rather than the main objective of the space programme. 

 "Our major problem in entering the global market is that we are only a five-satellite-old company, whereas there are companies which are 40 to 50 satel­lites old. So even though we can offer extremely competitive prices, the user goes for track record. However, due to fierce international competition, the big satellite companies are looking. at us as a source of sub-systems. So for some time we may not get any orders for complete satellites but make an equal amount of money by supplying sub-systems to, say, ten satellites," says Sampath. 

 The tie-up between Antrix and Eosat Corporation of the US, which has a turnover of about $40 million, is another deal that excites Sampath. "It is a step in gaining international credibility for Indian space products. It is a win-win situation. Eosat gets IRS data at highly competitive prices, which is moreover as good as and compatible with the Landsat (US) data that Eosat distributes to its cus­tomers. The imminent demise of Landsat 5 and the loss of Landsat-6 makes alternative arrangement a must. Here IRS data scores over the French SPOT data. Meanwhile, Antrix gains global market acceptability without spending a cent on expensive marketing,” Sampath exults. 

 Kasturirangan, Pramod Kale, Nambi­narayanan and Sampath are a small but representative sample of our space men. There are a whole host of others like Dr A.E. Muthunayagam, R. Aravamudan, S. Srinivasan, G. Madhavan Nair, K.V. Venkatachari, and Dr George Joseph. Behind payloads, orbits and engine char­acteristics it is these space men who, along with their thousands of colleagues, are propelling India into space. 

That is why the septugenarian doyen of our space men, Prof Dhawan said after the PSLV launch, "I wish I were a B Tech joining ISRO afresh !"

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Friday, September 28, 2007

Indian Space Programme

Business India, April 21- May 4, 1997

SPACE: THE NEW BUSINESS FRONTIER
Driven by the telecom, TV and Internet revolutions, the global space market for satellites, launch vehicles and other hardware is expected to rocket to nearly $60 billion in the next three years. The software for, and services coming out of, this growing space infrastructure will involve even larger sums. With the Indian Space Research Organisation's technology and Indian entrepreneurship, the country is well placed to grab a significant share of this emerging business. But will the government amend its currently stifling policies to let this happen?

Shivanand Kanavi

Anand Krishna is a real estate devel­oper who is making his fame and fortune not on land anymore but actually beyond the skies. A Malaysian of Indian origin, Krishna owns Measat, a satellite company with four satel­lites in orbit. Shinawatra, a former general in the Thai army, is another to reach for the stars with company Thaicomm. They are part of an increas­ing number of Asian entrepreneurs who are getting into the hottest business of this, and probably the next, century - satellite services.

The business is rocketing in front of our very eyes and we seem to be missing it. Over the next 10 years a galaxy of satellites will cover our planet's skies. There are all together 150 satellites in orbit today running telecommunications, remote sens­ing, TV, scientific experiments and military appli­cations. In the next three years alone 500 satellites, called 'birds' in industry parlance, are expected to be launched.


The hardware alone spells $30 billion worth of business for builders. If the plan of the Bill Gates-­Craig McCaw company Teledesic to put up 840 satellites to provide multimedia services and global mobile connectivity to the Internet comes through, then the value of business will truly be astronomical.

Four major factors have fuelled an unprece­dented demand for satellites: the growth of the Internet, corporate business communication, value-added services and electronic commerce globally, but especially in the US; the mushroom­ing of satellite TV channels in almost all countries and their further development to digital Direct- To ­Home (DTH) service with high-definition picture and CD-quality sound; the development of commercial remote-sensing applications; and the urgent need to set up basic telephony in developing countries.

Global mobile communications drives the mar­ket. In the next three years over 300 satel­lites are expected to be launched in the low-earth (600-1,000 km) and medium­earth orbits (10,000 km). These are parts of constellations of satellites meant for global cellular com­munication such as Iridium of Motorola, Globalstar, Odyssey of TRW, Orbcomm of Orbital Sciences, Starsys of GE Ameri­corn, ICO Global, etc. There are a few more schemes involving 100-200 small satel­lites awaiting global regulatory processes.

With commercial remote sensing open­ing up, 100 remote sensing satellites are planned to be launched as well. Additionally 150 tra­ditional large satel­lites will be launched in geostationary.orbits. More than a hundred of them will be com­mercial communication satellites. Over 50 of these are high.- powered satellites meant for DTH TV broadcasts. About 30 satcoms (communications satellites) will be for standard telecommunications and others will be for assorted use, including multimedia services and the Internet.

Such an unprecedented boom will mean another $30 billion for launch providers. Besides the gov­ernment-funded space programmes, a large num­ber of private companies are developing rockets for these launches. Some companies like Loral (Ford Aerospace) have shed their defence business in favour of the more lucrative space market. The merger of corporate giants such as Lockheed-Mar­tin Marietta (GE satellites with General Dynamics rockets) and Boeing-McDonnell Douglas have also meant an intensified focus on their space businesses.

Unlike in the past, the major new players are not governmental or inter-governmental programmes such as NASA, Intelsat, Inmarsat or Arianespace, much less the cash-starved Russian and Ukrainian agencies. The new players are not manufacturers of satellites and rockets at all- rather, they are oper­ators, marketers and service providers. They rely on other firms to build the hardware and launch it, while they focus on selling and finding innovative applications for their services.

Where does India fit in this scenario?

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has today completed developmental flights of the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), which can put a one-tonne satellite in a 1,000 km orbit. Work is in progress to stretch the existing launch vehicle by increasing the amount of propellants in the first stage solid-fuel booster and the second stage liquid-fuel engine, so that a 1200 kg satellite can be placed in a low earth orbit. The PSLV in its developmental phase cost an incredibly low $15 million. The entire programme was budgeted at about $100 million. Even if com­mercial launches of PSLV are marketed at $25-30 million, it will be the most attractive launcher for low earth orbit satellites, which could be for remote sensing, scientific experiments or ­the market driver - mobile communications, such as Motorola's Iridium (66 satellites) amongst others.

ISRO lost an opportunity to be part of the first round of Iridium contracts. Motorola had to finalise its financial closure and, due to the failure of the first developmental flight of PSLV in 1993 on account of a software error, dropped PSLV for consideration as one of the primary launchers. However, the later suc­cess of two flights in 1994 and 1996 means that Motorola will con­sider it as a potential vehicle for replenishing the constellation starting in 2002. Recently there have been a series of launch failures by sev­eral launch providers, and it might well become a seller's market for those who have suc­cessful launch records, so the window is still open for ISRO.

How does ISRO suc­ceed with a 'shoe-string budget' (as the well­known US aerospace magazine Aviation Week & Space Techno­logy said in a recent cover, story)? Space technology needs high­quality industrial and other infrastructure. For example, running the deep space simulation chamber for testing a satel­lite soaks up large amounts of power and about 2 million litres of liquid nitrogen, both of which are expensive in India.

MILESTONES IN THE INDIAN SPACE PROGRAMME
1963
First sounding rocket launched from TERLS

1969
Indian Space Research. Organisation (ISRO) formed under Department of Atomic Energy

1975
Aryabhatta launched

1979
Bhaskara-1 launched


1980
SLV-3, Rohini satellite launched

1981
SLV-3, RS-D1 launched. APPLE launched. Bhaskara-2 launched

1982
INSAT-1A launched


1983
SLV-3, RS-D2 Iaunched.INSAT-1B launched

1987
Launch of ASLV. SROSS satellite could not be placed in orbit

1988
IRS - 1 A launched
INSAT- 1 C launched
ASLV launched. Unsuccessful in placing SROSS satellite in orbit



1990 INSAT-ID launched


1991 IRS-1B launched


1992 ASLV launchedSROSS-C placed successfullyINSAT-2A launched

1993 INSAT - 2B launched PSLV-D1placing IRS-IE unsuccessfully


1994 ASLV launchedSROSS-C2 placed successfully PSLV-D2 launchedIRS-P2 placed successfully


1995 INSAT-2C launched IRS -1C launched


1996 PSLV-D3 launched
IRS-P3 placed successfully


1997 INSAT-2D sent to French Guyana on 8th April for launch


Space jargon
Geostationary orbit
Any object placed into orbit at 36,000 km above the equator will take the same amount of time as Earth to complete one revolution. Thus from Earth it appears to be stationary. Hence an antenna dish receiving signals from the satellite does not need to move to continuously track it, saving consider­able expense and complexity.
Transponder
A communication satellite used for telecom or TV receives the electromagnetic signal from the ground transmitter. It then retransmits it at a dif­ferent frequency towards Earth. The communica­tion equipment on board a satellite that does both is called a transponder.
Why multi-stage rockets?
The more weight that is carried into space, the larger the size of the rocket that is required for more fuel and power. It costs approximately $30,000 (roughly Rs. 10 lakh) to put one kilogram into geostationary orbit. In a multi-stage rocket the burnt out stages are detached one by one so that less and less weight is actually carried up.
Remote sensing
Observing Earth from a distance and getting infor­mation based on the reflecting properties of differ­ent objects is known as remote sensing. Remote sensing can also be done using aircraft but satellite remote sensing is far cheaper and more compre­hensive.
What is digital Direct- To- Home broadcasting?
In DTH, the signal frequency allows the broadcast to be received by a small dish antenna about a foot in diameter. Using digital technology the signals are compressed so that many channels can be broadcast from a single transponder. It enables the broadcaster to monitor and control usage, because the signal can be keyed to individual users, who can then be charged subscriptions. Since it uses digital technology, DTH provides extremely high­ quality picture and sound, as on a laser disc or CD.
Why should we use liquid-fuelled rockets when solid-fuelled rockets are much simpler to make?
Solid-fuelled rockets cannot be turned on or· off at will. Once lit they bum till the propellant. is exhausted. A liquid-fuelled rocket, on the other hand, can be easily controlled with a fuel valve, just like the accelerator of a car.



But ISRO has a major cost advantage because so much of space technology development is highly labour-intensive. This kind of work requires the highly skilled labour of scientists and engineers. ISRO has MScs, MTechs and PhDs assembling and testing critical subsystems of its satellites and rockets for a fraction of the costs of its foreign competitors. Just like the Indian advantage in developing computer software, low-cost intellec­tual labour gives ISRO a marked competitive advantage.

For example, the money invested in the entire Indian space programme over the last 35 years is half of what Japan invested in developing their own H-2 rocket over the last 10 years ($2.4 bil­lion). Yet it found that H-2, with a price tag of $150-180 million per launch, is priced out of the market. Now Japan is investing another $900 mil­lion to modify it into H-2A and using all the manu­facturing infrastructure of heavy weights like Mitsubishi, Kawasaki, Nissan and NEC to bring the launch estimate to about $80 million. H-2A has the same payload capacity as ISRO'S Geostation­ary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) now under development at an additional cost of only $100 million. ISRO can profitably price it at $70-80 million when it flies early in the next decade.

Launch failures are a common occurrence in the developmental phase. But serious problems arise when an operational vehicle fails, because this shoots up the already high satellite insurance costs and damages the launcher's credibility in the market. Thus far, all of the operational satellites built by ISRO, be they remote-sensing satellites or communication satellites, have done well, with some performing beyond their designed lifespan.
PSLV also acts as a major step in achieving the capability to launch 2,000-2,500 kg communica­tion satellites in the 36,000 km high geostationary orbit. Slightly modified first and second stages which have already been ground tested are used in configuring GSLV to launch India's Insat series. After developing GSLV and putting it into opera­tion, it will be stretched to carry the heavier 3,500 kg class satellites.

Under the leadership of U.R. Rao, ISRO under­took a vigorous programme to develop a space industry in India by transferring their technology to build various subsystems for liquid- and solid­fuelled rockets to private and public sector units. Antrix Corporation, which was set up by ISRO to market the government organisation's products internationally, has already taken initial steps to involve the private sector, and it even has Ratan Tata, Jamshyd Godrej and Ravindra Reddy on its board. L&T, Godrej, MTAR, Walchandnagar Indus­tries and others, who are involved in manufactur­ing subsystems for ISRO, could follow the worldwide trend and form consortia to build launch vehicles and market launch services.

Global marketing requires investments, mar­ket savvy, and aggressive strategies, which pri­vate entrepreneurs can provide. In fact, Rao recalls how India's first experimental communi­cation satellite, Apple, was not only offered a free ride into space by Arianespace (a European launch conglomerate) but, throughout the devel­opmental stage of Ariane, its director-general would personally visit ISRO every three months to brief them on the latest progress in the project. Ariane used to fly prospective customers from all over the world to French Guyana for Ariane launches. No wonder then that when NASA stopped carrying commercial satellites following the Challenger disaster, Ariane moved in. Today it has 60 per cent of the commercial launch market with its Ariane-4 rocket.

To launch so many satellites one needs suitable space ports. More than 10 new launch facilities are being planned by the private sector worldwide in the US, Canada, Brazil, Norway, Sweden, Kenya and Australia. And India's Sriharikota Range (SHAR), covering some 170 sq km north of Chen­nai, if marketed properly, could be a money-spinner. The location utilizes Earth's eastward rotation to launch a geostationary satellite in the equatorial plane. Its location close to the equator is one of its main advantages (as geo­stationary satellites must be launched near the Earth's equator), besides the fact that the Bay of Bengal provides a safe, unpopulated environment. Along with the Ariane­space port at Kouru in French Guyana in South America, SHAR currently provides the best location for equatorial launches.

SHAR also boasts a state-of-the-art, 20-storey, 300-tonne mobile ser­vice tower. This is a mechanical engineering mar­vel built by Triveni Structurals to ISRO designs and specifications. The mobile service tower pro­vides facilities for launching PSLVs and is cur­rently being augmented with cryogenic equipment for launching GSLVs as well. To increase the fre­quency of launches to serve the global market an additional launch tower is being planned by ISRO and is awaiting government funding. The range also offers solid propellant production and casting facilities along with ground testing facilities for solid-fuelled rockets.

The star of the space programme is of course ISRO'S satellite design and fabrication capability. Indian Remote Sensing Satellites (IRS) today are among the finest in the world and at the same time inexpensive. ISRO currently has four of these in polar orbits and will launch four more by 2000. ISRO is thus placed to be the best provider of remote-sensing data globally, a market dominated earlier by Landsat (US) and Spot (France). It was also a bit of luck that Landsat-5 went out of action and Landsat-6 was lost in space by the Chinese Long March rocket.

ISRO moved into the vacuum with its high-class IRS 1-C. Seizing the opportunity, the US com­pany Eosat, which is marketing Landsat's remote-sensing data, made a strategic alliance with ISRO'S global marketing arm, Antrix. ''The alliance is win-win," N. Sampath, executive direc­tor of Antrix, exults. Recently Eosat's director of applications and training, Tina Cary, echoed simi­lar sentiments, saying, "the IRS series is a jewel in the crown of Eosat." A new partner to this alliance will be Space Imaging (US), which is soon putting up a high-resolution satellite of its own. The threesome, with its combined array of data products, hopes to capture a significant portion of the $250-million market for data over the next three to five years.

In an exclusive interview with Business India, K. Kasturirangan, chairman of ISRO, spelt out the organisation's marketing strategy. "Data sales in the form of computer-com­patible tapes and hard copies will yield us money, but the real money is in value-added services. Value-added services in remote sensing could soon have a market of $2-3 billion. The important thing is that in India we have a lot of experience in generating value-added products for specific queries, laying a pipeline for urban development or ground water studies or other studies in rural development, crop estimates, aquaculture, etc, which we did for our own developmental needs. Thereby we have built up the service infrastructure for the global market as well.

"We are encouraging more and more entrepre­neurs into remote-sensing, value-added services. When many of the foreign space agencies come to us today for signing co-operative agreements in remote sensing, they also come as representatives of industry in their country. We also have been including industrial representatives and put entre­preneurs together. We have identified about 50 entrepreneurs and 12-13 have become very active.

Profits from a distance
Remote sensing is a technology by which a satellite acts as our eye in the sky through which we get important information about our own planet. Everything reflects energy in a different way. The reflective and emissive properties of various surfaces, which are detectable by satel­lite, are called their 'spectral signatures'.


Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellites are equipped with special cameras which scan a Part of Earth's surface for radiation. The data is digitised and sent to a ground station for analysis. This data can yield commercially valuable information. For example, in the case of ground water, the conventional method of prospecting yields a success rate of about 45-­50 per cent, but remote-sensing data used in conjunction with the conventional method yields a success rate of almost 95 per cent.

In the same way, remote sensing has great cash-saving applications in urban development, aquaculture, deep water fish­ing, cartography, siting industrial complexes, environmental impact assessment, pipeline laying, etc.

ISRO, in addition to having developed extensive in-house remote-sensing expertise, is working at building up a service infrastruc­ture and likewise encouraging many entrepre­neurs to service the market. The National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA), National Natural Resources Management System and Regional Remote Sensing Service Centers are continuously making efforts to popularize the technology. They provide satellite data in various forms at throw­away prices to Indian users as compared to the expensive French SPOT satellite data. They also help in interpreting it for specific applications. NRSA, together with the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing at Dehradun, is training a large number of people from the government and the private sector in data analysis and value-added services.

Recognizing India's strengths in remote sens­ing, the UN has established an advanced centre for training in remote sensing for the Asia Pacific region at Dehradun. Given its state-of-the-art remote-sensing satellites and software abilities, India is considered to be one of the global leaders in the field.

Some are ex-ISRO people. Some have been trained by us at our Indian Institute of Remote Sensing at Dehradun and at the National Remote Sensing Agency at Hyderabad.
"Our French competitor SPOT is talking about a new satellite – SPOT-5 - with improved resolu­tion. They have their own established market. But I am sure that we will have our own niche in the mar­ket as well. We have to always maintain leadership technologically. Instead of trying to enter as the third force in this emerging market, we are having a strategic alliance with Eosat and Space Imaging," elaborates Kasturirangan.

Today India is one of the global leaders in all aspects of remote sensing. "In fact, a very large number of papers in any international conference on applications of remote sensing is from India," says former chairman Rao proudly. He was also the architect of Antrix Corp and its alliance with Eosat.

ISRO has not found space hardware marketing as easy, when giants like Hughes control 60 per cent of the global satellite market. SO ISRO has gone in for subsystem supply as a market entry route. It has a contract for about $2 million dollars from Hughes and a further half million from Matra Marconi. But this is not easy either. Each designer has his own specifications for subsystems, unless the system is co-designed with the supplier. "The money is peanuts and hassles are many, margins are non-existent, but the interaction is helping us in many ways. Though they are tough to satisfy, once Hughes or Matra realizes your value as a· reli­able supplier, they inevitably give a steady stream of orders which we can pass on to the industry while we become the testing, qualifying node," says Sampath.

Kasturirangan feels that 10 transponders to be leased out to Intelsat in 1998 from Insat-2E will not only bring in $100 million over the next 10 years but also give India visibility in the interna­tional communication satellite market.

"Our global thrust is remote sensing"
K. Kasturirangan, chairman of ISRO, spoke to Business India about ISRO'S marketing strategies and the challenges that lie ahead in the highly competitive global market


Are you looking at the global market for space hardware and software as a thrust area, or do you just have some surplus capacity to sell?

In the case of value-added services in remote sensing we feel we have some strength and we are giving it a global thrust. In communications we have leased 10 transponders to Intelsat in Insat 2­E for $100 million over the next 10 years. We also provide satellite operation-related services like track­ing and telemetry on orbit tests to other satellite companies.

When it comes to satellite hard­ware, we do have some problems. We can supply ele­ments which have been standardised like communica­tion elements, pre­cision mechanical elements, control system elements, electro-optical and infra-red sensors and propulsion elements, among others. We have a contract with Hughes worth over a million dollars. We are supplying some sub-systems to Matra-Marconi in Europe, and we are also holding discussions with Loral Aerospace of the US. But manufacturing is not ISRO'S activ­ity and we are transferring many of these things to industry.

In the launch-vehicle programme there is lim­ited capacity available for a single shot or replen­ishment of satellites in low earth orbiting constellations for mobile communication. There are a number of agencies in the world which are looking for that kind of support as well. But we are not planning a major thrust in the launch­ vehicle market.

Here again we want the industry to play a more important role. They should not be just making subsystems for us. They should get into assembly and the vehicle itself like Lockheed, McDonnell ­Douglas, Orbital Sciences, etc, in the US, so that ultimately we can have a space industry coming out of this.

Suppose tomorrow the government allows uplinking for private channels. How long will it take ISRO to put a satellite in orbit?

The DoT and the ministry for information and broadcasting use about 70 transponders. With Insat 2-D, which we sent to French Guyana for launch this month, we will have 93. As we place one Insat every year, we will have 130 transpon­ders by 2002. We can build up capacity for private users and adjustments could be done. You can't suddenly ask for 25 transponders – nowhere in the world can you do that. Other than that we can take care of private demand.

Do you see any widening of the Insat coordina­tion committee to include private users?

I will not right now rule out that possibility. How Insat will evolve in the future is certainly receiv­ing ISRO' S attention. It will depend on the telecom policy and broadcasting policy which are being discussed in the government.

The draft broadcast policy says channel opera­tors should use Indian satellites. If ISRO transponders are going to be priced competi­tively anyway, why should you insert that clause?

Every country, when it reaches capability like ours, develops a national satellite policy. When you talk about an Indian registered satellite, it is not necessary that it should be built by ISRO. It can be built anywhere. Registration essentially provides control of the satellite. Government also takes certain protective measures which are part of UN conventions and treaties as well as ITU (International Telecommunication Union) regulations

Have any Indian operators of satellite channels approached ISRO for transponders?

There have been in the past a number of enquiries.

So ISRO has lost that business?

Yes. If transponders were available they would have come to us.

There has been talk of an 'exodus' from ISRO. Is there any possibility of salary and perk structures being changed to offer more attractive packages?

The Fifth Pay Commission has come out with recommendations. They will be reasonably good. There is also an effort to bridge the gap with the private sector by offering housing and other perks.

Does the government recognize that high technology areas have to be treated differently; otherwise we will keep loosing talent?

Yes. The flexibility we have is quite notable. We can hire people at middle and senior levels directly if we need to. Our crop of new recruits is reason­ably good; they are not all from IITS or IIMS as they used to be, but from regional engineering colleges and good private engineering colleges. The slight difference in background they might have with IITS is easily made up for with in-house training. People with enough drive and motivation are given responsibilities in wider fields. We are not unduly worried of some people leaving. It happens in all organizations, government or private.

What are the technology challenges for new comers at ISRO, or is it getting routine?

A new generation of satellites, the reduction of weights of space components, increasing power, developing new, stronger and lighter materials, new high-resolution cameras, new digital circuits and electro-optical elements, etc. To bring down the weight of say a filter from 200 to 100 gm is a tremendous thing, but if that is the new interna­tional benchmark then we have to do it. It is not easy. We may go for a newer band, the Ka band, which is used for multimedia services. It is being planned for GSAT·3. We have to develop ion propulsion systems rather than gas-based ones. They will increase the life of a satellite. I don't see any problem of technology challenges for the next 10 years at least.

Meanwhile, ISRO is coming out with increas­ingly sophisticated communication satellites with Ku band transponders for smaller VSATs and mobile communications, global positioning sys­tems and Ka band for multimedia services. It will also produce a DTH satellite in 1998-99 as well as high-power S band transponders for digi­tal-audio communication, which could have possi­ble applications for a countrywide mobile communication system.

But these potentialities will not be realized until the government liberalizes telecommunications and broadcasting policies. To date the government refuses to release its stranglehold on communica­tions and broadcasting, which remain amongst the most rigidly controlled activities under the Indian Telegraph Act. Despite many modifications to the legislation since its enactment in the 19th century, the commercial opportunities offered by space technology (and even India's own satellites!) cannot be used to commercial advantage.

Despite the major advances made by the Indian space programme and its enormous potential for providers of satellite-based services such as tele­com and TV, government policy prohibits private satellite service providers from using ISRO's satel­lites. Starry-eyed entrepreneurs are not permitted either to set up satellite services or buy or lease satellites from ISRO.

What's more, uplinking from India between private sector satellite service providers and any satellites whatsoever is not permitted. This means that Indian service providers must not only lease transponders on foreign satellites, but must also send their programmes abroad for uplinking. This not only adds great expense to the service, but also means the loss of revenue that would otherwise go to ISRO and VSNL. The situation could get even more piquant if the government does not get its act together, because one might see ISRO'S transpon­ders leased to Intelsat, which in turn could sublease them back to Indian and other Asian operators, leaving ISRO out in the cold.

Nothing seems to highlight the wasted poten­tial of the Indian space programme due to current government policy more than the fact that while Indian experts train satellite technologists from Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, China, the Philippines and other countries at the foothills of the Himalayas at Dehradun, businessmen from these very same countries make a beeline to India to sell satellite services.

The countdown for capturing the opportunities of the space market has begun. Since it is still a nascent business with enormous growth potential and India has developed the necessary technologi­cal and managerial skills, the country is in a posi­tion to make a significant impact on the new business and reap a great deal of the rewards. But ISRO'S hands can only be unshackled through the creation and implementation of forward-Iooking, business-oriented policies. ISRO should be allowed to network with private enterprise to mar­ket its scientific and engineering expertise and products.

India and its entrepreneurs can rocket into the next millennium on the new business of satellite services, but only if the government lets them.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Fuzzy Logic

Business India, November 30-December 13, 1998

Closer to real life

Fuzzy-logic-based consumer goods may not be worth their premium prices, but in complex systems, and where safety is involved, fuzzy logic scores high.

Shivanand Kanavi

What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think of a machine? That it is mechanical. Which means that it does exactly what it is instructed to do at the press of a button or turn of a knob. The machine sees everything in terms of discrete numbers with no choices in between. That means that you, the user, have a limited choice - you cannot get the benefit of the in-between values, be they temperature for an air-conditioner or intermedi­ate distances for an auto focus camera.

That is changing, thanks to what is called fuzzy logic. This logic, used to programme newer, more sophisti­cated machines, works differently. Unlike conventional machines, which act on simple yes-no instruc­tions, fuzzy logic machines can oper­ate in more complex conditions. In that sense they behave more like humans, whose thought processes are complex.

Let us take the example of a family deciding to shift house. Many consid­erations are weighed before a deci­sion is taken. For example, the new house is bigger, but is further from the husband's office, though it is closer to the wife's dispensary and daughter's school. The cost per square foot of the built-up area is higher, but the location is cleaner and quieter. And so on.

In short, the new house has a number of pluses and minuses. The family's decision will ultimately be either yes or no, but it will have been arrived at as a result of a complex process in which the factors involved are given varying degrees of impor­tance or weights. That is what statis­ticians would call a weighted average. To put it simply, that is how fuzzy­ logic-based machines work.

Fuzzy logic has found numerous applications in the control systems of complex machinery. In the 1990s Japanese and Korean companies have launched a large number of consumer goods with fuzzy controls. For exam­ple, a fuzzy-logic washing machine uses sensors to measure the size of the wash load and the turbidity in the wash water (which will indicate the amount of dirt in the wash). A few fuzzy rules then turn these signals into patterns of water agitation for different lengths of time and different amounts of detergent to be released by the dispenser. Accurate and inexpensive sensors became widely available in the late 1980s, as did fuzzy chips, and thus consumer goods with fuzzy controls became a reality (see table).

The shopper's guide to fuzzy logic
----------------------------------------------------
Product Manufacturers The fuzzy advantage
----------------------------------------------------
Air-conditioner Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Sharp, Matsushita (Videocon) Consumes less power
----------------------------------------------------
Auto engine Nissan/NOK Controls fuel injection
---------------------------------------------------
Camcorder Matsushita Cancels hand-held Jitter and adjusts auto focus
-------------------------------------------------
Photocopier Canon Adjusts drum voltage based on picture density, temperature, and humidity
-------------------------------------------------
Dishwasher Matsushita
Adjusts cleaning cycle and rinse and wash Strategies
-----------------------------------------------
Refrigerator Sharp, Daewoo(India) Sets defrosting and cooling times based on
usage
-------------------------------------------------
Rice cooker Matsushita, Sanyo Sets cooking time according to amounts of rice and water
------------------------------------------------
Television Sanyo(BPL), LG, Samsung, Sony Adjusts screen and texture for each frame
----------------------------------------------
Video Camera Canon, Sanyo Adjusts auto-focus and lighting
----------------------------------------------
Washing machine Daewoo(India), Matsushita(Videocon), Sanyo(BPL), LG, Hitachi, Samsung
Adjusts washing according to dirt level, fabric type, load, and water level.
-----------------------------------------------------------------


Some of these products have reached the Indian market recently. For example, Videocon and BPL have introduced fuzzy-logic washing machines based on Matsushita and Sanyo technology. Daewoo has intro­duced its own fuzzy washing machines and refrigerators. Videocon has a fuzzy air-conditioner, BPL a colour TV, and so on. All these machines are priced 10-20 percent higher than the non-fuzzy models. The companies claim that the payoff is in ease of use and better perfor­mance. But will a fuzzy washing machine save Rs.3,000 worth of power and detergent in its design life of, say, 5-7 years? Not very likely. Besides, if something happens to the fuzzy circuitry, the repair charges are steep as the companies keep the design proprietary.

Doubtful value for money
Today fuzzy control systems have further evolved into even more advanced adaptive fuzzy. These systems change their fuzzy rules as the environment changes or as the machine undergoes wear and tear. Now we have refrigerators with adap­tive fuzzy logic which change their compressor cycles on the basis of how the consumer uses the fridge. Is the door opened very often in the morn­ing and evening and not during the rest of the day and most of the night (as a working couple with no children might do)? In a house with many children, the door might be opened often, except when they are in school or sleeping. The pattern might change again during the summer and winter vacations, and so on. The adaptive fuzzy chip learns the pattern of usage, records it in an internal clock, and triggers off the compressor accordingly. Consumer goods with adaptive fuzzy logic control are even more expensive and doubtful value for money.

“Fuzzy is wrong, wrong, and pernicious"

“So for as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain. And so far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
– Albert Einstein (Geometrie und Erfahrung)


Fuzzy logic and its application suffered from official neglect and even ridicule in the US. A distinguished electrical engi­neer once said, Fuzzy theory is wrong, wrong, and pernicious. Fuzzy logic is the cocaine of science.”


Another traditionalist added: "Fuzzification is a kind of scientific permissiveness. It tends to result in socially appealing slogans unaccompanied by hard scientific work." Such strong opin­ions were a product of intolerance and fundamentalism that no doubt exist in many influential members of the scientific establishment. It was also provoked by the fact that initial advocates of fuzzy thinking gave only "hand-waving arguments" and no "hard science". Today the conserva­tives have had to eat crow. IEEE, the most prestigious body of electrical engineers worldwide, has a separate journal for research in fuzzy logic. Many Japanese and Korean companies have also turned these ideas into commercial success.

Lotfi Zadeh, an Iranian born in Azerbai­jan, developed fuzzy logic while teaching electrical engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, in the mid- 1960s. He used his prestige as a brilliant systems engineer to encourage people to work in fuzzy logic, but he faced constant ridicule. Today, he has been vindicated after a hard struggle. However hard nuts among the traditionalists have tried rationalise the fuzzy logic phenomenon by calling it some sort of Oriental mysticism (and hence Asian companies were the pioneers). However, today fuzzy is part of the arsenal of any expert in artificial intelligence.

Interestingly there was a school of Jain logicians in ancient India who had devel­oped a six-valued logic called shyadvad, instead of the Aris­totelian yes-no type of binary logic.


However, adaptive fuzzy logic is a must in more complex systems like a steel rolling mill, an aircraft, or a high-speed train. For example, if the control system of a helicopter can adjust itself to wear and tear, and changes in the outside temperature and dusty conditions, it can fly safely even in severe conditions. The absence of such adaptive controls led to failure of the commando operation launched by Jimmy Carter during the hostage crisis in Iran. Many of the US choppers crashed in the hot and dusty deserts of Iran before they could get anywhere near the hostages!

Today, adaptive fuzzy logic is being used in a large number of non-mechanical applications as well, such as evaluating takeover targets, modelling econometric changes, simulating test marketing, project management, and so on.

Fuzzy logic tries to accommodate the greyness of life as against the black and white of Aristotelian logic and is thus an advance of theory. Control systems or simulation programmes based on it are a step closer to the complexities of real life and play an important role where the cost of a mistake can be frightful. However, applications where the controls are not critical, as in a wash­ing machine or air-conditioner or fridge, are of doubtful value to the consumer.

Himalayan Bio-resources

Business India, June 12-25, 2000
Bouquet of technology blossoms

Can plant biotechnology yield better tea, high value flowers, aromatic plants rich in essential oils and new drug molecules from rare Himalayan plants? Yes, proves the Institute of Himalayan Bioresource Technology (IHGT) at Palampur

Shivanand Kanavi

Englishmen who fancied the hills of Himachal, which reminded them of Scotland, found refuge from the hot Indo-Gangetic plains in cooler climes of Shimla, Dalhousie, Mcleodgunj, Forsythgunj, Barot, and other places. They also brought in tea cultivation to the region. Tea from Kangra Valley was at one time bought at a premium. However, the neglect of the tea gardens by local owners after Independence led to the fall of Kangra tea. Most tea gardens became weed gardens and production touched the nadir of less than 6 lakh kg a year. Today Kangra tea has bounced back the production has gone up in less than 10 years to 1.6 million kg, with the same acreage under cultivation.

The credit goes to a band of scientists at the youngest and one of the smallest CSIR laboratories – IHBT Palampur. They painstakingly educated the growers in the area and introduced proper practices in weeding, pruning, and plucking, and the correct use of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilisers. On the other hand, as concern has grown in export markets about pesticide residues in tea, IHBT has set up an advanced analytical lab for the same.

As growers face labour shortage during several months of the busy plucking season of March-October, the institute has also developed machines, in collaboration with Central Mechanical Engineering Research Institute, Durgapur, for mechanised tea plucking thereby improving productivity 10-20 times. “The machines have found favour with several planters and some companies have bought the design from CSIR and manufacture the same,” says S.D. Ravindranath, head of the tea division at IHBT.

It may not sound very hi-tech, but nevertheless it boosts the local economy. Meanwhile plant biotechnologists at Palampur are also doing cutting-edge work in tea, to genetically alter it. Their aim is to produce a variety, which will sprout in cold climates as well. Since tea goes “dormant” in this region for almost five months a year, additional sprouting for even a month or two more, would be a major boon for the industry.

Himachal provides the ideal agroclimatic conditions for floriculture. “What we did when we took up floriculture as a major thrust area, was to first study the market, to see which
Variety of flowers fetch the maximum value in Delhi market and in which season,” says D. Mukherjee, who heads the floriculture division. As a result, IHBT developed several new varieties of flowers which are commercially attractive to growers. They are also working on producing tulips, gladioli, bird of paradise, lilliums, and others, which will flower off-season, or on a particular day, like Valentine’s Day, Christmas, etc. Today, the floriculture industry in India pays through its nose to buy good planting material from European sources. This makes the work undertaken by Mukherjee and his team all the more important.
Research done at Palampur on plant viruses has led to the recognition of this lab as a major center for plant virus research. This work is particularly important to help floriculturists when their crops are attacked by dreaded viruses.

Another thrust area for the lab, which is having significant impact on the regional economy, is essential oils from aromatic plants, a passion of Paramvirsingh Ahuja, director of the lab. Work in this area has resulted in the release of a Damask Rose (Rosa damascena), a variety rich in rose oil. Oil from this flower can fetch up to Rs.3 lakh per kilo in today’s market. According to Ahuja, the aroma of cash flow is bringing many farmers from not only Himachal but even Punjab, who are tired of growing wheat and basmati rice, with diminishing returns, and who are ready to take new risks.

India is one of the largest producers of essential oils in the world. IHBT, however, is concentrating on two things in this area. One: producing inexpensive designs distilling equipment, so that farmers can themselves put up oil extraction plants. (The natural products group led by V.K. Kaul has already developed and transferred the design of distillation plants to some fabricators. The farmers can now realise higher value, instead of selling bulk material to middlemen.) Two: to develop the technology to farm high-value aromatic plants like lavender, geraniums, etc.

However, what makes this lab a truly Himalayan Bioresource Technology Lab is its focus on the need to identify, preserve, and harness the vast biodiversity of the Himalayas. These mountains, which protect the plains of India form the harsh, cold winds from Tibet, are also recognised the world over as repositories of several important medicinal plants. For example, important anti-cancer drugs are extracted from Himalayan plants like Taxus Picrorhiza kurroa, a plant known for hepato-protective activity, and hypericum, whose anti-AIDS activity has been reported.

These plants are rare to find, difficult to grow, and are facing extinction due to unscrupulous exporters and uncaring pharmaceutical companies. The lab is quietly working on locating areas of concentration of such plants along with the Department of Space and Department of Biotechnology, so that satellite imagery can be used to locate a medicinal plant high up on the mountains. The lab is also developing the technology to “domesticate” such plants so that they can be grown in large quantities in controlled conditions.

“What’s new about this, after all, tissue culture is the answer,” one might ask. But life is not that simple. Many important medicinal plants grow in very severe conditions. In fact, there is a theory that severe conditions induce plants to produce the all-important alkaloids and metaboloids that yield drug molecules. In that case how can we grow them in less severe climates in labs and hothouses and still harvest the same amount of phytochemicals? “It took mankind about 10,000 years to domesticate wild rice and wheat, so we cannot hope to domesticate wild medicinal plants without intensive research and using modern biotechnology,” says Ahuja.

Aware of the wealth hidden in the Himalayas, the lab has a special biodiversity group made up of scientists like Brij Lal and S.K Vats, who wander in remote areas high up in the mountains, which are difficult to access, in search of the rare medicinal plants. Naturally you need to be a good mountain trekker and a naturalist of the 19th century mould – a rare combination indeed. In fact, Brij Lal belongs to a rare breed called ethnobotanists, who specialise not only in being good botanists and taxonomists but who also learn dialects of the tribals, befriend them in remote areas, and tap into their knowledge base of folk medicine. Ethnobotanists collect the plants used by tribals and nomads for medicinal purposes, identify them in modern botanical terms, preserve the plant material in herbaria, and so on. Today CSIR is involved in a major hush-hush programme of tapping India’s vast knowledge base of Ayurveda, Unani, Siddha, and tribal medicine in search of new wonder drugs. IHBT has a key role to play in this due to its knowledge of the Himalayas.

A search by IHBT in the Lahaul-Spiti valley for plants which are able to withstand the cold desert conditions has led to detection and isolation of the gene which makes a plant resistant to cold. According to Manju Sharma, secretary Department of Biotechnology, an international patent has been filed on this discovery.

Clearly, this lean and young lab, perched at the foot of the Dhavaldhar Himalayas, is showing how to use technology, high or low, to greater economic good of the region.

Trekking in Annapurna Himalayas, Nepal

Business India, May 17-30, 1999
Annapurna, an extreme close up

Nepal provides unparalleled trekking opportunities in the Annapurna range of the Himalayas for even rookie trekkers

Shivanand Kanavi

If one wants to be in the serene presence of magnificent snowcapped peaks of the Himalayas without being hardcore climbers and trekkers then the best area is around the Anna­purna range in north central Nepal bordering Tibet. The range includes such giants as Annapurna I - 8,091 metres, Machhapuchre (Fish Tail) ­6,993 m, Niligiri-7,061 m, Dhavalgiri -8,167 m, Tukuche-6,920m, Tilicho - 7,134 m and so on. The most endearing aspect of trekking in the Anna­purna region is the handshaking distance from the awe-inspiring peaks.

The trekking routes in the area orig­inate from Pokhara, a major city in Nepal. The city itself is located in a valley (altitude 833 m) and is blessed with the beautiful Phewa lake. Here you will have the unique opportunity of boating in the Phewa tal surrounded by green hills like Sarangkot (1,600 m) while actually gazing at the Annapurna and Machha­puchre peaks, nearly 8,000 metres up in the sky. There are many options for a trekker in this region depending on his physical capabilities and the time he can spend, starting with a two-day trek to week long treks and even two and three week long treks.

Annapurna sanctuary
If you have a week at your disposal then there are two options. One is to start from Pokhara, go to Ghorepani (2,700 m) and come back. The other is to reach Jomsom (2,700 m) and fly back or fly to Jomsom and trek back to Pokhara. The Pokhara-Ghorepani­-Pokhara trek is known as the Anna­purna sanctuary trek. This trek takes you into thickly-forested areas from the tropical to the rhododendron forests. The brightly-coloured pink and red rhododendrons are the national flowers of Nepal and blossom in April, brightening up the whole forest. As you near Ghorepani one then rises into coniferous forests as well. Needless to say, one gets darshan of the Annapurna range intermit­tently as a lot of paths are in the valleys. One is also constantly surrounded by not only flora but also mountain springs and waterfalls. 01 course since there are many steep climbs and downhills on this route you better have strong knees. You feel the pinch especially when coming downhill. It is definitely advisable to take a guide-cum-porter.

On day one you reach Sarangkot, stay there, get up early and see the glorious sunrise on Annapurna and then walk down to Navapool on the Jomsom-Baglung highway. From Navapool cross over to Birethanthi which is at the confluence of the rush­ing waters of Modi and Bhurungdi. One can continue from Birethanthi along Bhurungdi river and can end day two at Ramghar. Since most of this trek is in the valleys, it gets dark pretty fast and a sweaty afternoon turns pretty quickly into a freezing evening even in May. By 7:00 pm one might actually end up sitting around the boiler in an inn to get warmed up. Due to the presence of thick forests in the area one frequently encounters sudden rains and hailstorms in the afternoons.

On the third day one rises up from the river valley and climbs the step steps of Tikhedunga and stop at Ulleri (2,073 m). The climb involves a rise of more than 5,000 feet in one day by climbing over 3,000 steps. The glorious views of the valley compensate for the huffing and puffing. But huff and puff shamelessly so that the body gets as much oxygen as possible and as quickly as possible. The fourth day you climb up from Ulleri to Ghorepani (2,700 m). Stay at Ghorepani and next day morning rush to Poon Hill nearby, which is another 500 feet up. The panoramic view of the whole Anna­puma range from Poon Hill is unbeliev­able. On the fifth day start climbing down from Ghorepani and reach Tada­pani. The path goes through thick forest and when you reach Tadapani in the evening, with every limb aching, there is a glorious view of the Machha­puchre waiting for you at about 7:30 pm. When the valley is dark, the peak is lit up with the unearthly golden yellow rays of sunset. It will be one of those sights in your life which cannot be writ­ten about, nor captured in film, but which remain imprinted in your mind.

On sixth day you start from Tada­pani and reach Ghandrung (1,951 m), a lovely village full of gurungs. On day seven travel down from Ghandrung via Shoule Bazaar to Birethanthi and Navapool. At Navapool one reaches the Pokhara-Baglung highway, and one can provide the luxury of a one-­and-a-half hour bus ride back to Pokhara to one's aching limbs.

Dhavalgiri, shaligrams and…..
The other option, if you have only a week to ten days is to fly from Pokhara to Jomsom and trek back to Pokhara, which is known as the Annapurna circuit. Jomsom (2,700 m) is the head­quarters of Mustang district bordering Tibet. The place is also the nearest airport to thefamous Muktinath peak (3,800 m) which is a major pilgrim centre mentioned even in the Mahab­harat. The pious rich who want to visit the Vishnu temple at Muktinath can also charter a helicopter from Jomsom perform their puja and get back to Jomsom the same day. By trekking it takes three days, mainly due to acclimatisation required at the high altitude.

Jomsom town lies in the valley of Kali Gandaki, a river apparently older than the Himalayas. The moun­tain flight from Pokhara takes only 20 minutes but gives you memorable views of the Himalayas and even the brightly-coloured rhododendron forests. When you reach Jomsom, the towering peaks of Nilgiri and Tilicho watch over you at all times in the clear mountain air. The closeness of the mountains can be guessed from the fact that a snow avalanche on the Nilgiri North peak could easily be heard from Jomsom town. Once you reach Jomsom spend a day in the town to acclimatise yourself. There is a well­ documented eco-museum where one can spend at least an hour or two fruit­fully. The museum depicts various aspects of history, geology, botany, culture and legends of Mustang district.

Scattered pearls of wisdom

How to get there by Air: Fly to Kathmandu and then take a local flight from Kathmandu to Pokhara. For the last leg take a mountain flight from Pokhara to Jomsom.
By Rail and Road: Reach Gorakhpur by rail from where the Nepal border at Sunauli is three hous away. Cross the border and get a bus or a taxi to Pokhara. (5-10 hours depending on the mode of transport). One can drive an Indian registered vehicle into Nepal; however the authorities at the border take away the Indian number plate and provide you with a temporary Nepali number plate.
Travel documents: Indians do not need a passport or visa and Indian currency is widely accepted all over Nepal.
Special Tips: If you are going to cross the border by road then be prepared for harassment form Indian customs and police when you are returning. You can be saved a lot of embarrassment it you register mobile phone, cameras and any other electronic goods that you are taking into Nepal with the Indian customs post at the border right when you are entering.
Accommodation & food: There are a large number of inns that provide decent accommodation in every village around Annapurna. The rooms cost anywhere from Rs20 Nepali (Rs100=Rs160 Nepali) to Rs300 N. The inns more than make up for it in their food bills, which can run up to Rs500 N per person per day. A coke which costs Rs15 N at Pokhara can cost Rs 60 N at Jomsom or Ghorepani as it has to be hauled up on mule back. It is best to stick to dal - bhat, Nepal’s national dish and Tibetan bread with honey or eggs. In fact, it is always safe to stick to the local dish, since the cooks know it best! People who have eaten masala dosa in Delhi and parotha or puri-bhaji in Tiruvananthapuram would swear by this wisdom.
Drink: Try hot lemon juice and even tato pani (hot water) after a tiring day or even in the early morning. If you are a tea drinker from India ask for Nepali chay. It is inexpensive and exquisitely brewed with tea, ginger and cinnamon. If you want to try local alcoholic drinks, go for home-made millet brews like chhang or rakshi. In villages like Marpha an Tukuche, there are local distilleries that manufacture brandies from locally- grown apricots, apples and oranges.
Guides and porters: If you are past your twenties and are used to a sedentary lifestyle then it is better to hire a guide-cum–porter at Pokhara. They charge anywhere from Rs.400 N to Rs.1,000 N a day.
Equipment: Nothing, except a camera or a camcorder to record at least a tiny bit of the natural splendour. Because of the abundance of inns for trekkers at every village on all the trekking routes, one does not need tents or even a sleeping bag unless one is going to Tilicho lake.

Interestingly at Kagbeni near Jomsom on the way to Muktinath, one can still find 100 million-year-old fossils of marine animals. These fossils are major evidence for the theory of continental drift, according to which, 65 million years ago there was a sea where the Himalayas stand today and the Indian tectonic plate came and hit the Tibetan plate leading to the forma­tion of the Himalayas. A common fossil one finds in ammonite rocks is that of a conch. These fossilised conches are revered by devout Hindus as symbols of Vishnu and are called shaligram. If you are not lucky enough to find a shaligram on the Kali Gandaki riverbed then you could always buy one from the numer­ous Tibetan souvenir traders that you will find on the trek.

On the Jomsom-pokhara trek, start from Jomsom after spending a day at Jomsom. Reach Tukuche (2,591m) by evening after passing through Marpha. On day two, go from Tukuche via Kalopani to Ghasa (2,031m). The second day provides you with unparal­leled panoramic views of Dhavalgiri and Tukuche peaks from the Kali Gandaki riverbed. While trekking in the Kali Gandaki valley, a strong wind starts everyday at about 11:00 am till about 3 pm which carries a lot of dust. So make sure that you start as early as possible.

On day three start from Ghasa and reach Tatopani (1,189 m). This stretch passes through the world's deepest river valley which is over 7,000 feet deep. Tatopani means hot water and the name is derived from the hot water springs there, where one can wash away the tiredness from one's limbs. Tatopani also provides the best food in the entire route. On day four, start from Tatopani and reach Ghaleshor. If the first three days were more or less on level ground at about 10,000-8,000 feet along the Kali Gandaki river valley, the fourth day involves steep climbs up and down and the temperature also climbing as you come down to about 3,000 feet from 8,000 feet. The next day it takes a two-hour trek from Ghaleshor to Beni from where one can get a bus ride to Pokhara. The bus takes about four-and-a-half hours to reach Pokhara and goes through several steep ups and downs. A day's rest in Pokhara and boating on Phewa lake can top your trek.

For the more ambitious trekkers there is a 14-day trek from Pokhara to the Annapurna base camp (4,500 m) and back. There is a 28-day trek around Annapurna from Besishahar to Pokhara via Manang, Thorungla pass (5,416 m), Muktinath, Jomsom and back to Pokhara via Ghorepani or via Beni. If you have only seven days but want to do high altitude trekking then one can also fly from Pokhara to Hungde near Manang and trek to Tili­cho lake and back. Tilicho is a glaciated lake at about 15,500 feet and is one of the highest lakes in the world.

In short the Annapurna range is a goldmine for trekkers and can cater to all varieties from city slickers who want to stretch their limbs a bit, to hard core trekkers. What attracts literally lakhs from around the world every year to this region is of course the glorious views of the mountains and the friendly people. In fact one is yet to hear of a robbery or any sort of crime against trekkers in this area. So what are you waiting for, pack your rucksack, take a few thousand rupees and get ready to be overwhelmed by the Himalayas!