Energy Security and India
It is clear that India cannot
rely on one source of electricity:
be it coal; gas; hydro or nuclear. The bouquet will have all these components.
This requires rational and pragmatic planning and not dogmas, says Shivanand Kanavi.
(This article appeared in Rediff.com at http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-column-an-energy-sufficient-india-a-long-road-ahead/20120320.htm )
Indian energy consumption profile is varied. We use bio mass
like agricultural waste and animal waste like cow dung and wood, char coal for
heating and cooking purposes as well as refinery products like kerosene and
LPG. While a small amount of electrified transportation has been adopted by the
railways most other transportation by road and water is dependent on diesel and
to a lesser extent petrol both of which are refinery products. Industry depends
on electricity as well as coal and fuel oil or diesel for its energy needs.
Today we are importing over 80% of our oil needs which gets
refined into kerosene, LPG, petrol, diesel, fuel oil, naphtha etc hence not
only all our energy needs but also fertilisers and plastics needs are
susceptible to international crude prices. Even though India has recoverable
coal of about 70-80 billion tons, our needs are rising and our annual coal
consumption has crossed 800 million tons. Due to various restrictions on coal
mining due to environmental or forest issues or bottlenecks in railways for
internal transportation; imports of coal from South Africa, Australia and
Indonesia are rising and many Indian companies are buying mines in these
countries to secure these supplies and building plants in India along the
western and eastern coastline. Imported coal is expensive but it has already
reached over 110 million tons this year and is expected to rise dramatically as
energy needs increase. Thus our economy is not only dependent on international
crude prices but also coal prices which are again getting linked to crude
prices as natural gas prices already have.
Electrification is an important component of modernising the
country’s productive forces and increasing the quality of life of people.
Interestingly, Lenin in the emerging Soviet Union realised
it very clearly and accordingly the GOELRO ("State Commission for
Electrification of Russia") was set up as early as 1920. He endorsed the
slogan, ‘The age of steam is the age of the bourgeoisie, the age of electricity
is the age of socialism.’ He said in a
report in Feb 1920, “We must show the peasants that the organisation of
industry on the basis of modern, advanced technology, on electrification which
will provide a link between town and country, will put an end to the division between
town and country, will make it possible to raise the level of culture in the
countryside and to overcome, even in the most remote corners of the land,
backwardness, ignorance, poverty, disease and barbarism. We shall tackle the
problem as soon as we have dealt with our current, basic task, and we shall not
allow ourselves to be deflected for a single moment from the fundamental
practical task.”
The Soviet Plan included construction of a network of 30
regional power plants, including ten large hydroelectric power plants, and
numerous electric-powered large industrial enterprises. It was intended to
increase the total national power output per year to 8.8 billion kWh, as
compared to 1.9 billion kWh of the Imperial Russia in 1913.The Plan was basically
fulfilled by 1931.
India’s current per capita electricity consumption is less
than 750 KWH per annum where as it is already 1500 in China. It is to be noted
that in almost all economic indicators like electricity, steel, telecom etc
India and China were on par in 1991. The consumption in advanced countries of
Europe and North America is much higher, while the world average itself is 2500
KWH per capita. There are still over 10% villages which are not electrified and
according to 2009 data 33% of rural households and 6% of urban households still
do not have access to electricity.
The current profile of electricity generation in India is as
follows:
|
The demand in India for electricity far outstrips supply reportedly
the shortage varies between 8-12%, which amounts to a huge 15,000—20,000 MW of
power. Leave alone rural areas even large cities and giant metropolises are
subjected to regular load shedding that is brown outs and black outs. There
have been many instances of riots in many provinces especially during the
sowing season due to these brown outs when they need electricity for tube wells
and pumps. India needs rapid electrification to raise the standard of living as
well as for agriculture and industry.
In terms of medium and long term planning, Indian coal needs
to be mined efficiently. However it has large amount of silica, which appears
as large amount of fly ash in power stations, when it is burnt. This ash needs
to be disposed of in a way that does not harm the surrounding air and rivers
and lakes. However much needs to be done in this respect. Imported coal has
much higher calorific value but also has sulphur and nitrogenous content which
leads to large release of sulphuric and nitric acids during rain, that is
dangerous to forests and environment. The fact that open pit mining itself
needs to be handled properly to limit the damage to the environment is only
recently being addressed in India. According to scientific studies, the fly ash emitted by a
power plant—a by-product from burning coal for electricity—carries into the
surrounding environment 100 times more radiation than a nuclear power plant
producing the same amount of energy (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste).
Some of the ecologically disastrous effects of coal based thermal power plants
are already visible in Chhattisgarh, where large clusters of pithead coal
powered thermal power plants are scheduled to come up.
From the long term energy security perspective Indian coal
reserves will get exhausted in less than 50 years. Even worldwide the coal
reserves are shrinking. Increasing reliance on imported coal will lead to
Indian economy being more and more at the mercy of global coal prices as it
already is with respect to oil prices. This is in addition to the extraordinary
burden that will be borne by our ports and railways for carrying coal. The
effect on green house gases and climate; effect of ash on pulmonary diseases
and people’s health and so on are additional things to be worried about. Coal
already provides 65% of power capacity and will likely play a major role in the
future also.
Natural gas offers a much cleaner alternative and power
stations can also be set up quickly. However while some discoveries of natural
gas have been made by ONGC and Reliance they are still relatively small
compared to the existing demand. Imported gas through pipelines of Central
Asia, Iran, Bangladesh and Myanmar will also be expensive since the gas prices
are linked today to oil prices, assuming of course that political relations
with these and intervening countries were permitting such pipelines. More over
gas is required for urea fertiliser, plastics and steel industry as well and
there will be a scramble for the same. Thus gas will play a small role as it
does at present (10%).
Methane from Coal Beds is another source that is being
explored in Eastern India. Many blocks have been auctioned to various companies
and it will add a significant but still small amount to the current gas
availability.
Recently ONGC has drilled a R&D well for Shale Gas in Paschim
Banga (West Bengal) and studies are continuing. Shale Gas has been a great new
success story in energy and has meteorically risen to provide 25% of gas in US.
However new environmental concerns are being raised about the chemicals that
are used in hydraulic fracking to release the gas from layers deep down. Like Coal
Bed Methane, Shale Gas too promises to be another source of much needed gas for
India.
Geophysicists tell us that India sits on a large ocean of Gas
Hydrates at great depths. However the technology to exploit these is not yet
available globally and they may provide a valuable gas source in the future.
Hydroelectricity is a renewable source of energy, since we
expect every rainy season to fill up our dams. However due to our high
population density such dams lead to large scale submersion of villages and
forests causing social displacement and social tension. Himalayas have great
hydroelectric potential and that is why dams are being built feverishly in
Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Jammu &
Kashmir. But Himalayas are very young mountains and there is a lot of soil
erosion and the dams would be silted heavily very soon. More over the dams are affecting
forests and causing submersion of agricultural land and villages there too,
though on a smaller scale than in the plains as in the Narmada Basin. That is
why there is already a strong opposition to these dams in the hill states even though
we have tapped a very small amount of this potential. Thus hydro’s contribution
to power generation will remain at about the current levels of 20% and falling.
Many NGO’s believing in the mantra of “small is beautiful”,
say that mini and micro hydro projects are the answers to India’s energy
problems. However, the facts on the ground show that such potential is hardly
2,500 MW and that too at a high cost per megawatt making it hardly a panacea.
State
Wise Numbers And Aggregate Capacity Of Small hydro projects (Upto 25 Mw)
Installed & Under Implementation
(AS ON 31.3.2009) |
||||||
Sl. No.
|
State
|
Projects
Installed
|
Projects
under Implementation
|
|||
Nos.
|
Capacity
(MW)
|
Nos.
|
Capacity
(MW)
|
|||
1
|
Andhra
Pradesh
|
59
|
180.83
|
12
|
21.50
|
|
2
|
Arunachal
Pradesh
|
81
|
61.32
|
43
|
25.94
|
|
3
|
Assam
|
4
|
27.1
|
4
|
15.00
|
|
4
|
Bihar
|
12
|
54.60
|
4
|
3.40
|
|
5
|
Chattisgarh
|
5
|
18.050
|
1
|
1.00
|
|
6
|
Goa
|
1
|
0.050
|
-
|
-
|
|
7
|
Gujarat
|
2
|
7.000
|
2
|
5.60
|
|
8
|
Haryana
|
5
|
62.700
|
1
|
6.00
|
|
9
|
Himachal
Pradesh
|
79
|
230.915
|
9
|
26.75
|
|
10
|
J&K
|
32
|
111.830
|
5
|
5.91
|
|
11
|
Jharkhand
|
6
|
4.050
|
8
|
34.85
|
|
12
|
Karnataka
|
83
|
563.45
|
14
|
85.25
|
|
13
|
Kerala
|
19
|
133.87
|
2
|
3.2
|
|
14
|
Madhya
Pradesh
|
10
|
71.16
|
4
|
19.90
|
|
15
|
Maharashtra
|
29
|
211.325
|
5
|
31.20
|
|
16
|
Manipur
|
8
|
5.450
|
3
|
2.75
|
|
17
|
Meghalaya
|
4
|
31.030
|
3
|
1.70
|
|
18
|
Mizoram
|
18
|
24.470
|
1
|
8.50
|
|
19
|
Nagaland
|
10
|
28.670
|
4
|
4.20
|
|
20
|
Orissa
|
8
|
44.300
|
6
|
23.93
|
|
21
|
Punjab
|
29
|
123.900
|
2
|
18.75
|
|
22
|
Rajasthan
|
10
|
23.850
|
-
|
-
|
|
23
|
Sikkim
|
16
|
47.110
|
2
|
5.20
|
|
24
|
Tamil
Nadu
|
15
|
90.050
|
4
|
13.00
|
|
25
|
Tripura
|
3
|
16.010
|
-
|
-
|
|
26
|
Uttar
Pradesh
|
9
|
25.100
|
-
|
-
|
|
27
|
Uttarakhand
|
93
|
127.92
|
33
|
40.35
|
|
28
|
West
Bengal
|
23
|
98.400
|
16
|
79.25
|
|
29
|
A&N
Islands
|
1
|
5.250
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total
|
674
|
2429.77 MW
|
188
|
483.23 MW
|
||
Recently wind farms have come up in several regions. However
inherently wind in India is not enough to produce power efficiently unlike in
some Nordic countries. It has been estimated that the efficiency of production
from wind is around 35%-25% in Europe and North America but only about 15% in the
windy regions of India. More over wind farms also require large amount of land
which is a problem in land starved India. Of course one has to keep in mind
that wind can only add on to an existing steady base level of production in the
grid and cannot be relied upon for continuous supply. Though India has
impressive figures in wind energy installation, it is a known fact that it has
become a source for exploiting tax loop holes for corporations and not a
serious source of electricity supply to the grid.
Many people naively believe that India having been blessed
with ample amounts of sun light, Solar would be a natural choice as a major source
of electricity. However, converting sunlight to electricity is a very expensive
process and it currently costs about 4 times the conventional. Even though the
technology is more than 100 years old, a lot more advancement has to happen in
basic research in new materials to convert sunlight to electricity more
efficiently (currently it is only 12-16%) and cheaply. People who claim that
solar is environmentally friendly do not understand that the silicon chip
making process uses some of the most toxic chemicals, which are then let out as
effluents. Today India is buying a lot of solar panels from China and if we
decide to start fab for the same in India to lower prices then we will come
across the associated environmental issues as well. Moreover, solar electricity
needs to be stored in expensive and environmentally harmful lead batteries, since
there is no Sun in the night. Any large scale use of solar power would lead to
serious issues over disposing of the batteries. Thus environmental friendliness
of solar technology is a over simplification. It is expected that further
advances in science and technology of materials, efficiency and storage will happen
in perhaps the next 50 years. We should also recognise that solar plants of say
even a modest 100 MW require several square kilometres of land.
India has very little geothermal potential though there are
hot water geysers in the Himalayan region.
India has developed nuclear power reactors using natural
uranium and has been improving the technology in the last 40 years. India does
not yet have the technology for large enriched uranium reactors and is hence
planning to import them from Russia, France and US. Indian Uranium resources
are of very small and of very low quality. However the opening up of international
trade in nuclear materials in 2008 by the Nuclear Suppliers Group has allowed
India to import Uranium from large Uranium producing countries like Kazakhstan
and Russia. In the future, it can also do so from Canada and Australia. India
has also developed the technology to process the radioactive waste from these
reactors and extract useful plutonium from the waste. This reprocessing of fuel
has largely resolved the waste disposal problem, which is very serious in North
America and Europe. Plutonium thus obtained has been used for making bombs as
well as to develop power generation in Fast Breeder Reactors. In fact that is
the reason the reprocessing technology has been strictly controlled by US and
other powers. The first large Fast Breeder Reactor designed by India is soon
coming online in Kalpakkam near Chennai and will take India to the cutting edge
of this technology globally. India is also blessed with large amounts of
Thorium. The first Thorium reactor of the world has also been designed by India
and the construction of a 300 MW Thorium reactor known as AHWR will start soon.
The world will be looking forward to these innovations.
Nuclear reactors are small in size but need a radius of few
kilometres around them to be ready for evacuation in order to diminish the
danger to human life in the highly unlikely case of an accident. So far, in the
nearly 42 years of operation there have been no serious accidents in Indian
reactors. Today’s reactors have been designed to take care of many accidental
scenarios of earthquakes, tsunamis, terrorist attacks etc that have the
potential to damage the reactor core. The reactors are being designed to safely
shut down in an emergency. Thus no radiation need be leaked to the environment.
Uranium mining, handling, reactor maintenance are all
potential sources of radiation exposure to workers. Thus extreme care has to be
taken regarding prescribed safety procedures during the entire cycle and no chalta hai attitude will work.
Many people ask, “Is it (nuclear power) dangerous?” Since
radiation is invisible it leads to many irrational fears. The short answer is,
“Yes it is” and it needs scientifically trained staff to handle it at all
stages. However looking at the energy security of India in the future and
considering the strengths and weaknesses of other sources of electricity
available to us, which have been discussed above, nuclear remains an important
source of energy security for India as our planet’s fossil fuels dwindle and
become extremely expensive. It is also environmentally benign due to no carbon
emission or fly ash disposal and other problems. Nuclear power especially with
Fast Breeders and Thorium Reactors will be an important source that can provide
electricity at competitive rates to the teaming Indians for more than 100 years
based on our own Thorium reserves.
It is clear that India cannot rely on one source of electricity: be it coal (domestic or imported); gas
(domestic or imported); hydro or nuclear. The bouquet will have all these
components. The weight of different components in the bouquet can change as
economic costs and environmental costs vary in the future. This requires
rational and pragmatic planning and not dogmas and irrational prejudices.
The problems of land acquisition and rehabilitation exist in
all large industrial and urbanisation projects and are not peculiar to nuclear
projects as in Jaitapur. The state apparatus needs to handle these sensitively.
Any layman’s concerns on safety, technology etc can be addressed adequately. We
need to see the energy scenario 20-50 years ahead and prepare for it while
trying to address the rising expectation of people in terms of living standards
and energy availability for the same. After all it is increased availability of
electricity and transportation that will see a sea change in common man’s life
in rural and urban India.
**********
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