Chandrayaan and all that

http://business.outlookindia.com/inner.aspx?articleid=2258&subcatgid=999&editionid=60&catgid=9

Outlook Business, 15 Nov 2008

Pie in the sky

Chandrayaan-1 is a statement of sorts: India has space capabilities and is a low-cost player. And now, it’s building an ecosystem for companies

Supriya Kurane

He just can’t conceal his excitement. "We are part of the moon mission," gushes TT Mani. His company, Avasarala Technologies, is responsible for a piece of Chandrayaan-1: heat pipes, a critical component that regulates temperature in spacecraft and satellites, and ensures that electronic components don’t fail in space. When India blasted off its first unmanned mission to the moon last month, it launched million-dollar dreams of space entrepreneurs like Mani with it.

About 40 companies have contributed to Chandrayaan-1. Companies like Tata Advanced Material, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and L&T built the body and solar panel array elements (which power the craft). A clutch of small companies made myriad components like heat pipes, ground fixtures and power packages—critical components that have no scope for error. They are all part of the troupe of about 100 Indian companies in the private sector—big (the Tatas, L&T and Godrej) and small (Walchandnagar Foundry, Venkateshwara Engineering and Shoma Industries)—that have been quietly powering the country’s space ambitions.


No limits in the sky

At the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), it’s take-off time. Following the success of Chandrayaan-1, ISRO is planning more launches. There’s Chandrayaan-2 in 2011, a mission to an asteroid or comet in 2015 and a Mars mission in 2019. ISRO is collaborating with several countries to carry an ultra-violet telescope (which captures images normal satellites cannot) in an Indian satellite within a year. It’s building a tropical weather satellite with France and collaborating with Japan on a project on disaster-management from space. It is building capabilities to launch heavier satellites (which can go 10-15 times further than conventional geo-stationary satellites that rotate along with the Earth) by 2010. The more satellites and crafts ISRO launches, the more business comes the way of Indian companies.


Besides its own launches, ISRO plans to step up commercial satellite launches for other countries and private players. This is a market worth $138 billion, and forms the lion’s share of the total global space opportunity of $251 billion, notes The Space Report 2008 (See table below: The Space Pie). To start with, ISRO wants to increase its commercial launches—which it began in April 2007, with the launch of Italy’s Agile astronomical satellite—from two to five in a year, and earn $70 million a year in the process. The bigger, long-term goal is a 10% market share, leveraging its 60-70% cost advantage over foreign players.

The business opportunity for India exists in three areas. One, building and launching satellites. Two, leasing space on these satellites for applications like direct-to-home (DTH) services, global positioning systems (GPS), education, telecom and weather monitoring, among others. Three, disseminating and processing data and images generated by satellites (for example, fisheries study water and weather patterns, and move their trawlers accordingly). In India, currently, ISRO dominates all three. The private sector, though, is gradually increasing its capabilities in satellite building and data processing. And, as the Indian space ecosystem develops, so will the opportunities for private firms.


Star wars

India’s space programme is largely self-sufficient—partly the unintended outcome of sanctions imposed by the US and Europe following India’s nuclear test in 1974—and aims to soon become completely independent of foreign support. India’s six remote-sensing satellites, the largest such constellation in the world, monitor the country’s land and coastal waters. India’s seven communication satellites, the biggest civilian system in the Asia-Pacific region, provide communication access, television coverage, even remote healthcare services and education to the rural poor.

What ails India’s space programme is weak marketing, which cramps the overseas There are three business opportunities: building and launching satellites, leasing space on these satellites, processing data and images generated by satellites

revenue potential of ISRO and private ancillary industries. The need to market better led to the birth of Antrix Corporation 16 years ago. Antrix, an anglicised spelling for Antriksh (space in Hindi), is the commercial arm of the Department of Space, and does the grunge work of convincing foreign space agencies the cost savings of launching payloads through ISRO.

In 2007-08, Antrix saw a spike in revenues to Rs 940 crore (Rs 660 crore in 2006-07), on the back of two satellite launches for overseas clients. The bread and butter, however, remains the leasing of transponder capacity on ISRO satellites. Even then, it pales before Europe’s Arianespace, which controls almost half of the global commercial launch business. But that’s also the opportunity for ISRO, Antrix and the private sector to aim for—and chip away at. Says Sridhara Murthi, Executive Director, Antrix: "PSLV is a proven vehicle to carry satellites. We are marketing its capabilities to get more business."

In addition, Chandrayaan is a statement to the world that India has top-notch space capabilities. And low cost—Chandrayaan is the cheapest moon mission. Says Murthi: "Opportunities for the private sector are huge because of growing demand for satellites. The challenge for Antrix is to cater to the diverse needs of the global market on the one hand and get the private sector ready on the other."

Still, in a business where geo-political loyalties run deep, because of privacy issues and because volumes aren’t big enough to look beyond, crossing over won’t be easy. In satellite manufacturing, Antrix competes with players like Orbital Sciences and Lockheed Martin of the US, Alcatel Alenia and Loral Space and Communications of Europe, and some Russian manufacturers. In services such as sale of high-resolution images, against SpotImage of France, and GeoEye and DigitalGlobe of the US. "We are competing with seasoned players. Currently, there is no integrated space industry in India that can work collectively," says Murthi.

This apprehension of competing in the global market is palpable across the sector. "Competing in the global market is tough," says B Malla Reddy, CEO, Astra Microwave Products, a Hyderabad-based company that manufactures TR modules (transmit/receive components) for remote-sensing satellites and automated weather stations. In 2007-08, Astra recorded revenues of Rs 25 crore from the space sector, with ISRO its sole buyer. Says Reddy: "Countries prefer sourcing from home. Indian component manufacturers can sell globally only if Antrix acts as a facilitator."

Antrix hasn’t yet started acting as a facilitator in a big way, but ISRO is helping component companies in the global market. Precision-machinery manufacturer Avasarala Technologies began by supplying heat pipes to ISRO. It has about 1,000 heat pipes in space, and recorded revenues of Rs 25 crore last year. This is expected to double next year when it enters the global market, with ISRO’s help. Avasarala will supply heat pipes to ISRO, which will then remake them into thermal panels and supply US satellite maker SS Loral. Says Mani: "Once volumes increase, we will go into the global market on our own. For now, we depend on ISRO, as we don’t have the financial muscle or technical capabilities. Also, future business is not assured."


Shifting priorities

Despite the teething troubles, everything points to greater private participation in space programmes. ISRO has been gradually getting out of the production cycle and has even been transferring technology to private players. Some large international players are also looking at India as an outsourcing centre to manufacture critical components or develop software to interpret data, and are looking to set up captive units in India. An increasing number of ISRO veterans are leaving to join private companies.

The ecosystem is building up and investment is trickling into the private sector. November 2007 saw the first private equity (PE) deal in the defence and nuclear space, with Blackstone picking up 26% in MTAR Technologies, a Hyderabad-based nuclear, defence and space components company, for Rs 260 crore. Shortly before this, AIG, through its AIG Asian Opportunity Fund II, had loaned $20 million to Avasarala Technologies to build a new production unit on the outskirts of Bangalore.

Most of the work being done by private companies is either low-end or marginal. "For the private sector to truly get into the space sector, a policy shift is needed," says Mukund Rao, COO of ESRI India, a GIS (geographic information system) software provider and an ex-ISRO scientist.

Rao says ISRO should take on only R&D and support functions, and pass on satellite manufacturing completely to the private sector, as it is in the US and Europe. Adds Shivanand Kanavi, VP-Special Projects, TCS, and a space industry specialist: "ISRO can only be unshackled through the creation and implementation of forward-looking, business-oriented policies. ISRO should network with private enterprise to pass on its scientific and engineering expertise and products," he says. Indian Inc would like that, and Chandrayaan-1 may just speed up the transition.

Sand to Silicon: Book Review, Prasad Govenkar

Prasad Govenkar has reviewed Sand to Silicon in his blog: http://www.prasadgovenkar.com/

The text follows:

Book Review: Sand To Silicon
Book : Sand to Silicon

Author : Shivanand Kanavi

A book scripting down the history of the Semiconductors from the inception till date to the Information technology days. What I liked the most is the due credit given to the people in shaping this industry, mainly in India. I had no clue that so many Indians are actually instrumental in whatever technology we are enjoying today.

The sad part is that we Indians don't appreciate their contributions and they are known more by the people abroad, especially US.

Apart from this, this book is quite technical in nature. Since I am having the background in Electronics and Communication, it wasn't a heavy reading for me. But for those not having any technical background, would find it boring and not comprehensible.

Good book to read for those interested in knowing the Indians who have had global contributions. Histories and contributions of the whose who are given in detail. The Initiatives done by Tata's to that of Sam Pitroda are worth a read.

I did have a good refresh of what I had learnt in my 4 years of engineering and then comparing to what how exactly I am not using it.

Interview Ravindra Bisht: Rigveda & Harappans

(This interview appeared in the Ghadar Jari Hai, Vol II, No 3, July-September 2008. See www.ghadar.in)

Peepul ke neeche:

Reconstructing the past

A conversation with Ravindra Bisht.

Strangely, one rarely meets a historian and a field archaeologist, who is also well versed in Sanskrit. Ravindra Bisht is one of them. We met him at the Red Fort, in the Institute of Archaeology, run by the Archaeological Survey of India. He grew up in the hills of Kumaon and studied ancient Indian history at Nainital and Lucknow and trained as an archaeologist in the very same institute at the Red Fort. He then joined the Department of Archaeology and Museums of Punjab government. Quite early in his career (1968-71) he was involved in excavating at Sanghol that led to the discovery of a site which extended from the late mature Harappan period to the modern. When the new state of Haryana was created, he was transferred to the new state and he was involved with the important excavations at Banawali, Haryana. Later he joined the Archeological Survey of India and led the team that excavated at Dholavira, Kutch. He has written a large number of research papers on his findings. He is also one of the prominent archaeologists who dismiss theory of Aryan invasion of India and infact see Rigvedic Aryans as belonging to late-mature Harappan period. Since his school days Bisht was fascinated by Sanskrit, though none in his family had any knowledge of it. Today any conversation with him is sprinkled with generous quotations from the vast Sanskrit literature. Shivanand spoke to him about the mystery of Harappan culture, a sophisticated civilisation with no known literature one the one hand and that of the vast Vedic literature with no archaeological evidence to locate its chronology and evolution.

Shivanand: Dr Bisht, welcome to Peepul ke neeche. We are conversing in the midst of this awe inspiring structure of Red Fort and I hope we will discuss many mysteries of Ancient Indian history.

Ravindra Bisht: Thank you. I am pleased to participate in this discussion. As for Red Fort, I am an alumnus of this very Institute of Archaeology where I learnt the elements of my trade in the sixties.

Tell us briefly about Harappan civilisation.

The history of this region starts from excavations in Mehargarh, Baluchistan which have given us a continuous chronology of the last 8000 years. The Harappan sites which today number more than a thousand  extend from Baluchistan, Afghanistan to Punjab and Sindh in Pakistan and Rajasthan, Kutch, Saurashtra, Punjab, Haryana and Eastern UP in India. This is a vast area which covers more than twice the size of ancient civilisations of Egypt, Mesopotamia and Babylon. Based on the level of development this culture can be classified as Early Harappan (3500-2700 BC), Mature Harappan (2700-1900 BC) and late Harappan (1900-1500 BC). Mature Harappan is the most advanced and one can see town planning, elegant architecture, seals. We also see a lot of pottery and this pottery can also be found in Central Asia, Mesopotamia, Iran, Oman, Gulf and Afghanistan indicating that mature Harappan culture had extensive contacts and trade with surrounding areas. Clearly they had overland and maritime trade. In the late Harappan culture you see the absence of cities and more like villages indicating a retrogression.

The great mystery in Indian history is on the one hand Harappan civilisation with no philosophy and literature, leaving aside seals with a few characters, which are yet to be deciphered and on the other hand this vast Vedic literature which does not seem to have any archaeology associated with it, if you accept the dating (1200 BC) arrived at by translators like Max Mǖller and some historians. What is your view?

Max Muller was not a historian and gave an ad hoc dating of 1200 BC for Rig Veda, 1000 BC for Brahmanas, 800-600 BC for Upanishads etc based on some linguistic considerations. However that seemed to have stuck as a dogma even though he himself tried to disown it! My own estimation is that Rig Veda belongs to late mature Harappan period 2500-2700 BC. The geography described in Rig Veda does belong to the Saraswati-Indus valley. There are strong reasons to believe that the lost Saraswati is the Ghaggar-Hakra system which flows from Himachal into Rajasthan and then disappears without joining the Arabian Sea. Satellite imagery has confirmed that this river system used to merge with the Arabian sea. Tectonic movements resulting in earthquakes might have led to change in course and finally the river getting lost in Rajasthan. Tectonic movements also seem to have shifted the Yamuna further to the east. This could have happened around 2000 BC. Many Harappan sites have been found of later periods in the dried up Saraswati valley. To call rig Vedic Aryans as pastoral cowherds is a total misinterpretation. In fact there are many verses in rig Veda describing agriculture and trade including maritime trade. There are detailed descriptions of three masted sail ships, there are descriptions of fortified cities with three different parts the citadel, Middletown and lower town, (also found in Dholavira). There are hints of city life with its virtues and vices in rig Veda. The latter have been found in Harappan sites. There are many linguistic and conceptual connections between rig Veda and Ahura Mazda of Zarathushtra of Persia.

Harappan civilisation with its uniformity in weights and common architectural and town planning features indicates an empire of some sorts. Where are as rig Veda still talks of sabhas and samity and an elected Raja. How do you reconcile the two?

Harappa would have been an empire for a very short period of time. May be 150-200 years. In fact all empires in India have not lasted more than that. Look at Mauryas, Guptas, Mughals etc. That is centrifugal tendancies take over after some time. But we still see so many features of culture and arts and economy which are geographically wide spread in India. So it is not necessary to be in a single political empire for certain common features to exist. As for rig Vedic political system, sabha was a house of elders where as samity was house of commons which had artisans, farmers and the elite that is different classes and professions in it. Thus stratification had already come into being. It would be romantic to call it republican and democratic. In fact there is not a single instance of a Raja removed by the sabha or samity. Thus rig Veda remembers a lot of things from the past and retains some of the forms where as the actual state of affairs had moved on.

There is no single mode of disposal of bodies in rig Veda and that corresponds to what we see in Harappan culture as well. The weights system of dividing everything into sixteen parts is common to both. But after that the decimals take over so we have ten, hundres, thousand, lakh, crore and so on taking over. The architecture described in rig Veda is that of six pillars and then 100 and thousand pillars similarly 100 doors and thousand doors etc. So is the fort with seven gates.

One of the problems discussed in the literature is Horse not being Indian and an import from the steppes, where as Vedic literature mentions horse.

Rig Veda was composed after the horse came to India more over there were different types of wild asses in India. Rhino elephant were there and they have also been described in vedic literature and picturised in seals. Similalry ther are questions raised on rath-chariot. But we have found terra cotta figures with spoked wheel in Banawali, Haryana.

Saraswati seems to have flown roughly from 3000 BC to 800 BC. It was an important river and hence revered in rig Veda. Aridity set in the area with probably tectonic shifts around 2000 BC and finally it vanished. In fact in Yajurveda and Atharvaveda, Saraswati is not mentioned as a river. She has already been deified as a goddess.

What led to the down fall and disappearance of Harappans? Was it Aryan invasion as mentioned in history texts?

Aridity seems to have led to retrogression and later migration of harappans. There is no evidence of any invasion. In fact Aryan invasion theory is pretty much discredited today. There are basically two periods which are significant archeologically: the Neolithic culture of Mehrgarh that is 8^th millennium BC and the chalcolithic (copper age) period in the fifth millennium BC. If some people migrated in small numbers during this period it is a possibility but that is pre-Harappan.

Cutlures of Gandhar and Pira which represent alien influences are from a later period but they were highly localised and did not influence any one. There are many commonalities in the area of central Asia, Iran and India before the Iron Age. Soma is common so are most gods except Indra.

Dr Bisht, you have given us a fascinating view of ancient India and that too one contrarian to what most of us learnt in schools. It has been a pleasure talking to you.

It is my pleasure. One could talk endlessly about reconstructing ancient India. Unfortunately the atmosphere in India has been vitiated by charges that anyone who disputes the Aryan invasion theory is a communalist. And similarly the charges from the other side that all those who stick to theories of Max Muller and William Jones of an imported Vedic culture through invading Aryans are Eurocentrics and ‘Macaulay’s children’. This precludes any dispassionate discussion.

----------------------------------------------